Thanks for your answer !

So I guess I’ll wait for next year when I have more cash available to start with a 10k bankroll and do value for as long as I can, and then maybe I can switch to the best tipsters out there.

Maybe by then you’ll have time to review Mercurius ^^ Hope it actually woks ! ??

Some will limit purely on profit – that’s for sure. Others will spend more effort detecting the types of bets that make a profit, and limit accounts regardless of what they’ve made.

It’s not very hard for bookies to detect specific patterns. For instance, when it comes to arbing they can simply check whenever they offered arbs and then check which customers have been consistently betting on them.

You are right, though. If you get off to a bad start then there’s a risk of being locked into a loss. However, if you keep your bet sizes sensible and cap the odds at say 4.0 then you’re more likely to have a smoother ride.

3-6 months is a reasonable time frame to look at. But if you’re doing that full time, then the sheer volume is likely to alert the bookies!

￡500-1M is unrealistic. A lot of value bets have an edge of around 5% of the total stake placed. Considering your small bankroll, account limitations, and even the time it takes to physically place the bets – it wouldn’t add up.

As for Pinnacle and Betfair. The odds are very tight. They’re as close to the fair value as you’ll find. In one respect that’s great, because the value is consistently better than almost all other bookies. But they’re also so efficient that the vast majority of people cannot extract value from them. I know some Betfair tipsters on SBC have performed well – but the majority you’ll find out there won’t succeed in the long run.

Mercurius Trader – I’ve heard if it but haven’t reviewed it. I will actually get round to doing that because it looks interesting. My initial impression on it is that someone has found a way to clip a profit from Betfair but hit the extortionate premium charge. Hence it’s more profitable to sell it to others with a lower commission rate, and work it on a profit share basis. I hope that’s the situation, because that means it works.

Thanks a lot for your quick answer, I’m glad the website is still active, this is still one of the most comprehensive no-bullshit down to earth resources I’ve found on the subject ! ??

Ok so I understand if I wanna do value betting, I’m gonna have to use soft bookmakers, which means they’ll limit or ban me eventually.

If I understand well, they’ll limit an account more based on a regular pattern over time than total amount won ? Meaning if I bet bigger at the beginning, by the time they catch up to me, I’ll have the time to make more.
But doesn’t it expose me to the risk of variance too much ? Like I could start with bad luck, and then get limited before it’d eventually even out, right ?

Is there any way to value bet somewhat long term (to make 500K – 1M ?), or is it always gonna be a 3-6 months venture anyway ?

That’s why I was thinking good tipsters, because at least it should be possible to use their predictions on Pinnacle or Betfair and then never be limited, right ?

One last thing : I’ve just stumbled upon the app called Mercurius Trader. Do you have any opinion about it ?

Thanks a lot ??

Starting with 2k is fine, but as you say – if you bet too low then you’ll probably be limited before you ever get to benefit from larger stakes. So it’s about striking the right balance.

Pinnacle aren’t known for limiting players, but they’re a “sharp” bookmaker with very accurate odds and few inaccuracies. The regular “soft” bookmakers simply follow the sharps to keep their odds in check – but often have inaccuracies. In other words, you’ll find it very challenging to extract value from Pinnacle compared with the more popular bookies.

As for tipsters, good ones are hard to come by. That’s partly because there’s a lot of rogue services out there. But it’s also because the ones we see and hear about are simply the ones that have survived long enough before their eventual demise. The best place to find an honest tipster is Smart Betting Club, because they thoroughly verify every aspect of a service. But there are also some great services on Tipstrr, once you sieve through the weak ones. I’ve tried to do just that in my ‘Tipsters’ section.

I’d like to start with a reasonably sized bankroll (like 2k), and just reinvest my interests overtime. With the bookmakers limiting me, it seems like it wouldn’t be possible.

But I’ve also read that Pinnacle don’t limit players, so I don’t get why the solution woudn’t be to just move to Pinnacle at some point and keep betting there ?
Or is there no value bet at Pinnacle ? And in that case a long-term strategy would require to find good tipsters ?

Thanks for your help ??

The web site is very slick, with a convincing back story and published results, the classic too good to be true, but digging slightly deeper and doing some approximate maths it is not quiet as shiney.

To break even with their most proffitable method needs horses to average odds of about 5.62 (straight back bets on about 3 horses per race, with about one winner every 2nd race). To achieve their stated ROI of 16%ish needs average odds of about 6.54

I paper traded for 5 days, and found that achieving their “best odds” was just not realistic, even with the golden 8.30pm early access to their tips.

As you say, its easy to get a good strike rate, but really difficult to get odds that offer value on whatever strike rate your getting.

This post saved me a lot of time, and overal your web site is a brilliant resource. Thank you.

Nick

Dear Toby,

Please check my comment below about the Orio Sports course.

Much obliged!

how are You?

I would like to buy Orio Sports course, but, their website is down.
I have no idea whether they are still offering the course.

On the top of that, what is the best way to get xG data? Buying course won’t be useful if I cannot get xG data.

Much obliged!